So far in 2024, the Express Entry system has seen several changes.
From regular updates with proof of funds requirements, and Immigration Minister Marc Miller’s intention to hold more “domestic draws” for Express Entry candidates – to a significant increase in Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) scores, and a pause of up to a month in draws.
So how do the issuance of Invitations to Apply (ITAs) compare between the first six months of 2024 and the first half of 2023? And what can this tell us about how Express Entry will work for the rest of the year?
Get a free Express Entry assessment
How many ITAs were issued in the first six months of 2023?
In the first six months of 2023, Immigration Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) conducted 13 Express Entry draws, issuing 49,948 ITAs to immigration candidates.
The draw types were:
*In 2023 IRCC also used the “no program specified” designation to denote general draws.
How many ITAs were issued in the first six months of 2024?
In the first six months of 2024, IRCC has conducted 19 Express Entry draws, issuing 41,855 ITAs to immigration candidates.
Draw types so far include:
- General;
- French language proficiency;
- Health Care Business;
- Agriculture and Agri-Food Business;
- Transportation business;
- Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) Businesses;
- PNP; and
- CEC Specific.
The additional draw types in 2024 are the result of Express Entry category-based selections. This is a new policy within the Express Entry system, which allows candidates who qualify in any of the six categories to be invited to apply for Canadian permanent residence (PR) based on their inclusion; CRS scores are given less weight in these cases.
How do the ITA and Express Entry draws compare between the two years?
Some interesting contrasts emerge between the two years.
While 2023 saw a lower number of draws in the first six months (13 vs 19), more ITAs were also issued in the first six months of 2024 than during the same period last year (48,948 in 2023 vs 41,855 in 2024).
The increase in both the number of draws and the types of draws can likely be attributed to the new category-based selection draws that Canada begins implementing in the latter half of 2023. These new draw types may also impact both the cut-off scores and draw sizes of general draws through the way they affect the composition of the Express Entry pool.
By filtering only the normal draws between the two years, we can see the draw frequency, average CRS cut-off, and draw size of normal draws in the first six months of 2023:
- Frequency of General Draws 2023: 8;
- Average General Draw Size 2023: 5475 ITAs issued;
- Average General Draw cut-off score: 489.
These differ significantly from the draw size and cut-off scores in the same six months as in 2024:
- Frequency of General Draws 2024: 9;
- Average General Draw Size 2024: 1605 ITAs issued;
- Average General Draw cut-off score: 536.
So, while Express Entry in 2024 has technically conducted more draws overall in the first half of 2024 – the average draw size has gone down, with the department cumulatively issuing 7,000+ fewer invitations between January and June 2024. Furthermore, we can see that the average CRS score cut-off in 2024 (not including category-based selection draws), is around 50 points higher than the average for general draws during the same period in 2023.
What can this information tell us about how Express Entry will work for the remainder of 2024?
Express Entry in 2024 will have to account for the difference of 7,000 fewer ITAs issued compared to the first six months of 2023.
This dynamic becomes even more relevant when looking at the Immigration Levels Plan released by IRCC last year. According to the plan, Express Entry (denoted by “Federal High-Skilled”) has been allocated 110,770 in 2024. This is an increase of about 30,000 from 2023, where Express Entry was allocated a target of 82,800.
Notably, these targets are not for ITAs, but for immigrants landing (when a new permanent resident from abroad arrives in Canada for the first time; or when a new permanent resident already in Canada completes their transition to PR status – in both cases their new status is formalised in the country).
It is likely that IRCC plans many newcomers to come to Canada in the year following the issuance of their ITA, given the relevant processing and travel times. For example, a number of ITAs issued in late 2023 are likely to be attributed to landings in 2024, which in turn will count towards the landing targets set by IRCC for planning 2024 immigration levels. IRCC has a published service standard of six months to process all Express Entry applications.
We can infer some information from the plan. In 2023, IRCC issued 110,226 ITAs through the Express Entry system to meet the Level Plan target. With higher Level Plan allocations this year (and in 2025), it is possible that the Immigration Department will pursue more ITAs to meet its larger immigration targets. This fact, along with the finding that IRCC has issued 7,000 fewer ITAs so far this year than in 2023, could lead to an Express Entry system that conducts draws more frequently, or draws of greater size, throughout the remainder of 2024. However, this is only one possible outcome.
Although this information may be relevant to ITAs, remains indecisive How many? it as IRCC Will issue Whole Remanent of the year,
Get a free Express Entry assessment
